← Wolfspider Games & Entertainment Store Championship PTM

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Wolfspider Games & Entertainment Store Championship PTM. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 7.7% 3 100.0% 66.8% 60.0% 59.3% 1348 ↑ top
2 Wind Shadowstrike 1 7.7% 4 87.5% 65.2% 59.0% 58.0% 1301 ↑ top
3 Water Umbra Guardian 1 7.7% 3 33.3% 47.9% 52.0% 53.9% 1180 ↓ low
4 Fire Aggro 3 23.1% 10 55.0% 50.0% 51.5% 50.3% 1252
5 Water Aetherwing 1 7.7% 4 50.0% 51.5% 50.0% 50.6% 1211
6 Wind Seiryuu 1 7.7% 4 50.0% 50.7% 50.0% 50.7% 1191 ↓ low
7 Fire Arcane 1 7.7% 4 50.0% 52.1% 46.7% 47.4% 1230
8 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 7.7% 4 25.0% 41.2% 45.0% 46.5% 1145 ↓ low
9 Wind Umbra Ciel 1 7.7% 4 37.5% 46.8% 45.0% 47.5% 1229
10 Fire Crux Mage 1 7.7% 3 33.3% 46.7% 44.0% 45.9% 1128 ↓ low
11 Wind Astra Cleric 1 7.7% 3 16.7% 29.9% 42.0% 39.3% 1355 ↑ top