← LLE Store Championship PTM Season
Fire Umbra CielTier 2
at LLE Store Championship PTM Season
decks
1
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
42.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1022
· median 1022
· range 1022–1022
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1022
Q1 1158
Q3 1322
1455
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 30.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 15.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.3% | +7.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
