← LLE Store Championship PTM Season
Water FractalTier 1
at LLE Store Championship PTM Season
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 15.4% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 71.6% | +16.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 5 | 0-3-2 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 40.8% | -5.3 |
| Fire Suited | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 59.4% | +7.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Song of Frost, Jianyu, Fate's Premonition, Acquiescing Rejection. Losers more often ran: Unstable Fractal, Turbo Charge, Spalling Cleanse.
Banned
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fracturize | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cleric Robes | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Converter | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hairpin of Transience | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |