← LLE Store Championship PTM Season
Water AetherwingTier 2
at LLE Store Championship PTM Season
decks
2
(15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
2-5-1
overall winrate
31.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
27.6%
avg ELO -10.8 per match
expected value
41.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
36.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1292
· median 1292
· range 1129–1455
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1022
Q1 1158
Q3 1322
1455
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 30.8% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 28.4% | -16.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 7.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.7% | -7.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.8 |
