Water AetherwingTier 1
at GAG PTM Store Championship
decks
4
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22
13-7-2
overall winrate
63.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.7%
avg ELO +4.1 per match
expected value
51.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1350
· median 1353
· range 1285–1409
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
999
Q1 1191
Q3 1397
1482
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.5% | -6.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.1 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.3% | -6.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.6 |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.8% | +11.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.1% | -5.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.2% | +11.7 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
