Water AlliesTier 1
at GAG PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
7-5-1
overall winrate
57.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.1%
avg ELO +3.0 per match
expected value
52.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1238
· median 1238
· range 1196–1280
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
999
Q1 1191
Q3 1397
1482
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 12.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.7% | +6.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.3% | -3.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.4% | +5.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.8% | +4.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
