← GG Tempe Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Water AetherwingTier 1
at GG Tempe Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
2
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-2-1
overall winrate
64.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
64.5%
avg ELO +7.3 per match
expected value
53.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1266
· median 1266
· range 1194–1339
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1174
Q3 1344
1597
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.7 |
| Fire Neos | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.6% | +21.8 |
