← GG Tempe Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Water Crux AssassinTier 2
at GG Tempe Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
1
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-2-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.1%
avg ELO -7.0 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1183
· median 1183
· range 1183–1183
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1174
Q3 1344
1597
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.2% | -7.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Assassin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
