← GG Tempe Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at GG Tempe Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
2
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-3-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.4%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
48.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1178
· median 1178
· range 1094–1262
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1174
Q3 1344
1597
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.1 |
| Fire Neos | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.3 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.5 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
