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Fire OblationTier 2
at Hobbies Corner PTM Store Champ
decks
2
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
2-7-1
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
31.4%
avg ELO -8.3 per match
expected value
42.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1193
· median 1193
· range 1106–1281
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
999
Q1 1210
Q3 1433
1513
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 18.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.9% | -16.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Arcane | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
