← Hobbies Corner PTM Store Champ
Water AetherwingTier 1
at Hobbies Corner PTM Store Champ
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
5-2-0
overall winrate
71.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
69.8%
avg ELO +9.9 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1374
· median 1374
· range 1374–1374
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
999
Q1 1210
Q3 1433
1513
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 18.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.6% | +24.9 |
| Arcane | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.1% | +25.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Aetherwing decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
