Fire AetherwingTier 1
at Arcanum PTM Store Champion
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horse and Taxes | 17.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.5% | -4.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Jin | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Water Slice & Dice | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Wind Neos | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetherwing's Ward | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manabolt Convergence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Salamander's Breath | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |