Fire Umbra CielTier 1
at Arcanum PTM Store Champion
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.8%
avg ELO -3.5 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1517
· median 1517
· range 1517–1517
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1114
Q1 1183
Q3 1359
1597
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horse and Taxes | 17.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -4.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
| Slimes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Jin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slice & Dice | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.9 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
