← ⛵ Flagship PTM Store Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at ⛵ Flagship PTM Store Championship
decks
3
(8.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
7-6-1
overall winrate
53.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.1%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
46.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1360
· median 1358
· range 1350–1372
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1078
Q1 1163
Q3 1347
1519
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 14.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.9% | -14.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.8% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 45.0% | -3.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.5% | +12.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.8% | +13.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Fire Suited | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
