← VGMX Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at VGMX Phantom Monarchs Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 9.5% | 10 | 75.0% | 52.0% | 54.8% | 49.7% | 1327 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 60.0% | 44.8% | 54.7% | 49.6% | 1386 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 4.8% | 6 | 75.0% | 66.3% | 53.8% | 54.6% | 1269 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Fractal | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 75.0% | 45.4% | 53.3% | 46.4% | 1432 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 62.5% | 50.0% | 52.5% | 50.0% | 1258 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 75.0% | 59.4% | 52.0% | 51.3% | 1123 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Exia | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 50.0% | 55.0% | 52.0% | 54.1% | 1125 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Tera Cleric | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 62.5% | 55.0% | 51.7% | 51.5% | 1138 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 9.5% | 9 | 55.6% | 64.4% | 50.7% | 54.5% | 1148 | — |
| 10 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.2% | 50.0% | 49.1% | 1156 | — |
| 11 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 50.0% | 53.7% | 48.0% | 50.4% | 1123 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 4.8% | 3 | 33.3% | 47.0% | 48.0% | 49.1% | 1192 | — |
| 13 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 37.5% | 46.3% | 47.5% | 48.5% | 1114 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 9.5% | 6 | 16.7% | 39.1% | 45.0% | 47.4% | 1096 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 4.8% | 3 | 16.7% | 43.1% | 45.0% | 48.7% | 1159 | — |
| 16 | Slimes | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 25.0% | 40.2% | 44.0% | 45.2% | 1124 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Astra Ranger | 1 | 4.8% | 2 | 0.0% | 37.4% | 40.0% | 42.5% | 1069 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 0.0% | 35.1% | 40.0% | 44.2% | 1023 | ↓ low |