← PTM Store Champion at Oinker's Island
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM Store Champion at Oinker's Island.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Neos Tonoris | 1 | 11.1% | 6 | 83.3% | 64.5% | 60.0% | 56.8% | 1525 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 11.1% | 5 | 80.0% | 64.8% | 58.0% | 56.7% | 1368 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.2% | 52.0% | 52.3% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 52.6% | 50.0% | 51.0% | 1227 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 11.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 39.9% | 47.8% | 45.2% | 1417 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 22.2% | 6 | 33.3% | 43.6% | 46.7% | 47.9% | 1262 | — |
| 7 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 11.1% | 2 | 25.0% | 40.1% | 43.3% | 42.8% | 1253 | — |
| 8 | Water Fractal | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 12.5% | 38.3% | 42.0% | 44.9% | 1111 | ↓ low |