Fire AetherwingTier 1
at BGM PTM Store Championships
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.6% | -7.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.8% | -2.4 |
| Water Allies | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.0% | +15.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Water Chess | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 15 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 15 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evasive Positioning | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prudent Nock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetherwing's Ward | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manabolt Convergence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Contraband Revolver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Salamander's Breath | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |