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Wind SeiryuuTier 2

at BGM PTM Store Championships

decks
2 (6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8 3-4-1
overall winrate
43.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.4% avg ELO -2.2 per match
expected value
46.1% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.5% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1414 · median 1414 · range 1160–1668 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1125 Q1 1197 Q3 1439 1668
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 50% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Aetherwing 13.3% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 34.0% -15.4
Fire Crux Mage 10.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 52.0% +1.9
Fire Aggro 6.7% 0
Water Aetherwing 6.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.6% +15.4
Water Allies 6.7% 0
Wind Shadowstrike 6.7% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 3.3% 0
Fire Slimes 3.3% 0
Fire Suzaku 3.3% 0
Fire Umbra Ciel 3.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.9% +12.7
Fire Umbra Guardian 3.3% 0
Water Chess 3.3% 0
Water Crux Mage 3.3% 0
Water Fractal 3.3% 0
Water Luxem Assassin 3.3% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 3.3% 0
Water Tera Mage 3.3% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 3.3% 0
Wind Tristan 3.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.4% -16.9
Wind Wakeup Combo 3.3% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 48.8% -1.9
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Wind Seiryuu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Cleansing Reunion -1.00 0 1 0
Displace +1.00 1 0 0
Veiling Breeze +1.00 1 0 0
Forest Cake -1.00 0 1 0
Excalibur, Cleansing Light +1.00 1 0 0
Lost Providence +1.00 1 0 0
Crystallized Destiny -1.00 0 1 0
Fairy Whispers -1.00 0 1 0
Incapacitate +1.00 1 0 0
Scatter Essence +1.00 1 0 0
Ducal Seal +1.00 1 0 0
Regal Inquisition +1.00 1 0 0
Seiryuu's Command +1.00 1 0 0
Beseeched Fatestone +1.00 1 0 0
Reclaim -1.00 0 1 0
Longtail Grovesward -1.00 0 1 0
Shimmercloak Assassin -1.00 0 1 0
Staggering Strike -1.00 0 1 0
Stolen Chance +1.00 1 0 0
Grand Crusader's Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Sunblessed Gazelle +1.00 1 0 0
Beseech the Winds -1.00 0 1 0
Harness Lightning +1.00 1 0 0
Reveal the Hidden -1.00 0 1 0
Trained Hawk -1.00 0 1 0
Imperious Galebind -1.00 0 1 0
Tariff Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Dream Fairy +1.00 1 0 0
Byakko's Command +1.00 1 0 0
Innervate Agility +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/41832/archetypes/Wind Seiryuu