Water AlliesTier 2
at BGM PTM Store Championships
decks
2
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-6-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.0%
avg ELO -3.2 per match
expected value
44.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1235
· median 1235
· range 1125–1345
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1125
Q1 1197
Q3 1439
1668
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Wind Tristan | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
