EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 100.0% | 63.3% | 60.0% | 56.1% | 1460 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 41.5% | 56.7% | 48.1% | 1702 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 6.7% | 3 | 66.7% | 59.1% | 56.0% | 56.5% | 1259 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 55.0% | 56.0% | 1264 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Slimes | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 57.6% | 53.3% | 55.3% | 1269 | — |
| 6 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 6.7% | 3 | 66.7% | 56.5% | 53.3% | 53.0% | 1459 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.6% | 50.0% | 50.6% | 1267 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 46.4% | 50.0% | 48.6% | 1429 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 6.7% | 2 | 50.0% | 53.6% | 50.0% | 52.2% | 1214 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Fractal | 3 | 20.0% | 6 | 33.3% | 40.7% | 45.3% | 46.0% | 1336 | — |
| 11 | Arcane | 1 | 6.7% | 1 | 0.0% | 38.4% | 40.0% | 38.4% | 1352 | — |
| 12 | Wind Astra Ranger | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 0.0% | 38.3% | 40.0% | 45.3% | 1123 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Penguin Mill | 1 | 6.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 37.2% | 35.0% | 41.7% | 1145 | ↓ low |