Water FractalTier 1
at 淡水 貓腳印 PTM 店家冠軍賽
decks
1
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-0-2
overall winrate
80.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.6%
avg ELO +4.4 per match
expected value
56.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1528
· median 1528
· range 1528–1528
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1128
Q1 1245
Q3 1369
1539
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 14.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.9% | +1.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Exia | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
