Water FractalTier 1
at PI GA SC
decks
2
(15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
6-2-1
overall winrate
72.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
64.2%
avg ELO +6.6 per match
expected value
58.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1457
· median 1457
· range 1442–1472
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1118
Q1 1209
Q3 1444
1513
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.5% | -6.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.8% | +7.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
