Water GenbuTier 2
at PI GA SC
decks
2
(15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
0-4-1
overall winrate
10.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.1%
avg ELO -5.1 per match
expected value
40.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1161
· median 1161
· range 1118–1204
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1118
Q1 1209
Q3 1444
1513
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
