← Hans Arena Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Hans Arena Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Firebloom Burn 2 9.1% 10 90.0% 77.2% 61.1% 61.2% 1313
2 Wind Shadowstrike 4 18.2% 19 63.2% 55.1% 57.0% 53.4% 1427 ↑ top
3 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 4.5% 6 50.0% 46.0% 54.1% 51.7% 1442 ↑ top
4 Wind Luxem Assassin 1 4.5% 5 60.0% 49.8% 54.0% 49.6% 1399 ↑ top
5 Wind Umbra Diana 1 4.5% 5 70.0% 70.6% 52.1% 57.4% 1232 ↓ low
6 Fire Suzaku 1 4.5% 6 66.7% 42.7% 51.1% 43.7% 1571 ↑ top
7 Fire Crux Mage 2 9.1% 8 62.5% 58.6% 50.7% 51.2% 1329
8 Fire Crux Merlin 1 4.5% 3 33.3% 39.1% 45.0% 42.8% 1401 ↑ top
9 Water Allies 1 4.5% 5 40.0% 48.2% 44.4% 46.4% 1466 ↑ top
10 Water Crux Assassin 1 4.5% 5 40.0% 48.2% 44.4% 46.4% 1466 ↑ top
11 Fire Neos 1 4.5% 5 10.0% 37.6% 41.2% 45.1% 1047 ↓ low
12 Wind Seiryuu 4 18.2% 16 31.2% 38.9% 40.5% 43.1% 1303
13 Arcane 1 4.5% 3 0.0% 33.3% 40.0% 42.2% 1201 ↓ low
14 Fire Oblation 1 4.5% 2 0.0% 39.1% 40.0% 43.0% 1298
15 Wind Tera Silvie 1 4.5% 2 0.0% 42.2% 40.0% 46.2% 1208 ↓ low