← Webway PTM Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Webway PTM Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Genbu 1 4.5% 7 78.6% 60.7% 57.1% 53.9% 1541 ↑ top
2 Water Penguin Mill 1 4.5% 6 75.0% 68.9% 55.7% 57.2% 1401 ↑ top
3 Wind Seiryuu 1 4.5% 7 71.4% 44.3% 55.7% 48.6% 1624 ↑ top
4 Horse and Taxes 1 4.5% 6 66.7% 64.7% 55.0% 55.4% 1432 ↑ top
5 Fire Crux Mage 1 4.5% 5 70.0% 62.4% 55.0% 55.1% 1327
6 Water Ravishing Mill 1 4.5% 4 50.0% 52.9% 52.0% 52.9% 1311
7 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 4.5% 5 60.0% 44.3% 51.7% 48.5% 1349 ↑ top
8 Water Crux Assassin 1 4.5% 5 60.0% 61.8% 51.4% 53.9% 1163 ↓ low
9 Water Luxem Assassin 1 4.5% 5 50.0% 56.3% 51.4% 53.2% 1162 ↓ low
10 Wind Shadowstrike 2 9.1% 9 50.0% 45.3% 51.1% 49.0% 1269
11 Wind Umbra Diana 1 4.5% 3 33.3% 39.6% 50.0% 47.9% 1305
12 Fire Umbra Guardian 2 9.1% 9 50.0% 47.0% 49.0% 48.0% 1245
13 Fire Firebloom Burn 2 9.1% 8 37.5% 48.8% 48.0% 50.6% 1171 ↓ low
14 Fire Tera Cleric 1 4.5% 5 40.0% 39.8% 46.7% 45.5% 1211 ↓ low
15 Fire Seiryuu 1 4.5% 5 40.0% 51.0% 46.7% 48.6% 1235
16 Fire Aetherwing 1 4.5% 5 40.0% 45.6% 45.7% 47.4% 1217
17 Fire Suzaku 1 4.5% 5 20.0% 39.9% 44.0% 46.4% 1145 ↓ low
18 Arcane 1 4.5% 4 0.0% 30.0% 40.0% 41.6% 1109 ↓ low
19 Water Zander 1 4.5% 3 0.0% 39.1% 40.0% 44.8% 1100 ↓ low