← MSG Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at MSG Phantom Monarchs Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Suited | 1 | 7.1% | 7 | 78.6% | 62.2% | 59.2% | 55.7% | 1423 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 7.1% | 7 | 85.7% | 63.1% | 58.1% | 54.6% | 1367 | — |
| 3 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 7.1% | 6 | 66.7% | 53.9% | 55.0% | 52.6% | 1499 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 52.5% | 53.3% | 52.5% | 1345 | — |
| 5 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 62.3% | 52.0% | 54.4% | 1342 | — |
| 6 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 50.0% | 39.5% | 51.7% | 47.6% | 1548 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Genbu | 2 | 14.3% | 11 | 45.5% | 51.7% | 50.7% | 52.3% | 1317 | — |
| 8 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.1% | 48.3% | 49.4% | 1270 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Slimes | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 30.0% | 45.7% | 47.1% | 48.9% | 1176 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 20.0% | 41.6% | 44.3% | 47.3% | 1119 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Fractal | 2 | 14.3% | 8 | 37.5% | 39.2% | 44.0% | 43.0% | 1299 | — |
| 12 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 10.0% | 37.6% | 39.3% | 43.6% | 1158 | ↓ low |