← Contrarian's Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Water Tera MageTier 2
at Contrarian's Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
1
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-4-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
29.9%
avg ELO -12.8 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1176
· median 1176
· range 1176–1176
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1088
Q1 1182
Q3 1405
1511
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 21.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Wind Chess | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
