← Contrarian's Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Contrarian's Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
decks
3
(21.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
7-4-2
overall winrate
61.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.1%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
55.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1421
· median 1435
· range 1317–1511
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1088
Q1 1182
Q3 1405
1511
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 14.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.7% | +5.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 32.3% | -13.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 7.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.5 |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.2 |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Wind Chess | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
