← PTM Store Champs @ Lower Hutt
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at PTM Store Champs @ Lower Hutt
decks
2
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-3-1
overall winrate
65.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.0%
avg ELO +2.2 per match
expected value
54.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1296
· median 1296
· range 1252–1341
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
918
Q1 1092
Q3 1281
1575
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 11.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -4.9 |
| Fire Suited | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.6% | -24.6 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Wind Silvie | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
