← PTM Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at PTM Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
decks
2
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-5-1
overall winrate
54.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.1%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
50.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1276
· median 1276
· range 994–1558
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
918
Q1 1199
Q3 1350
1599
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.5% | -16.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Merlin | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Fire Vanitas | 2.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.4% | +8.0 |
| Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
