Water FractalTier 2
at 貓腳印三民店 Store Champion
decks
2
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-4-2
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.8%
avg ELO -4.7 per match
expected value
48.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1346
· median 1346
· range 1282–1410
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1115
Q1 1221
Q3 1382
1410
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.3% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 33.9% | -12.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.7 |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
