← Buddy Connection GA PTM Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Buddy Connection GA PTM Store Championship .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 2 | 22.2% | 6 | 83.3% | 60.2% | 57.3% | 53.7% | 1348 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 83.3% | 61.4% | 55.0% | 54.1% | 1420 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 66.7% | 62.3% | 50.0% | 53.0% | 1231 | — |
| 4 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 11.1% | 2 | 50.0% | 53.8% | 50.0% | 52.3% | 1218 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Water Fractal | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 38.0% | 46.7% | 44.4% | 1322 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 16.7% | 37.1% | 45.0% | 45.9% | 1176 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 11.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 39.1% | 40.0% | 43.2% | 1169 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 11.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 41.6% | 33.3% | 41.6% | 1162 | ↓ low |