← Buddy Connection GA PTM Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Buddy Connection GA PTM Store Championship . EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Genbu 2 22.2% 6 83.3% 60.2% 57.3% 53.7% 1348 ↑ top
2 Fire Oblation 1 11.1% 3 83.3% 61.4% 55.0% 54.1% 1420 ↑ top
3 Fire Aggro 1 11.1% 3 66.7% 62.3% 50.0% 53.0% 1231
4 Wind Seiryuu 1 11.1% 2 50.0% 53.8% 50.0% 52.3% 1218 ↓ low
5 Water Fractal 1 11.1% 3 33.3% 38.0% 46.7% 44.4% 1322 ↑ top
6 Wind Shadowstrike 1 11.1% 3 16.7% 37.1% 45.0% 45.9% 1176 ↓ low
7 Fire Aetherwing 1 11.1% 2 0.0% 39.1% 40.0% 43.2% 1169 ↓ low
8 Fire Slimes 1 11.1% 2 0.0% 41.6% 33.3% 41.6% 1162 ↓ low