← MANAPRO STORE CHAMPIONSHIP SINGAPORE
Water FractalTier 2
at MANAPRO STORE CHAMPIONSHIP SINGAPORE
decks
2
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
29.3%
avg ELO -13.2 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1312
· median 1312
· range 1164–1460
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1097
Q1 1191
Q3 1420
1685
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.1% | -25.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
