← Cardboard Crack Games PTM Store Championship
Fire SuitedTier 1
at Cardboard Crack Games PTM Store Championship
decks
3
(18.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
5-3-1
overall winrate
61.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.9%
avg ELO +2.7 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1289
· median 1277
· range 1160–1430
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1114
Q1 1177
Q3 1304
1685
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 18.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.1% | -4.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -2.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.7% | +13.1 |
| Water Chess | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.8 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -5.7 |
