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Water AetherwingTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suited | 18.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.9% | +4.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranger Boots | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |