Water FractalTier 2
at SBT Store Championship
decks
1
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
4-0-1
overall winrate
90.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.9%
avg ELO +7.4 per match
expected value
58.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1414
· median 1414
· range 1414–1414
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1103
Q1 1221
Q3 1382
1538
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 20.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -4.1 |
| Water Genbu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
