Water FractalTier 2
at 暖角落 GA 店家冠軍賽
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.1% | -4.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Wind Byakko | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |