Water Umbra CielTier 2
at 暖角落 GA 店家冠軍賽
decks
1
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-5-0
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
29.4%
avg ELO -11.0 per match
expected value
45.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1249
· median 1249
· range 1249–1249
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1070
Q1 1201
Q3 1399
1618
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.8% | -22.8 |
| Fire Suited | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
