EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 貓腳印-新莊店 0124 PTM Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Water Aetherwing

54.0%

5.6% share · 7 matches

11.1% share · 16 matches

11.1% share · 10 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Wakeup Combo	2	11.1%	16	84.4%	53.7%	60.4%	50.9%	1567	↑ top
2	Water Aetherwing	1	5.6%	7	64.3%	60.6%	54.0%	54.3%	1481	↑ top
3	Wind Crux Lorraine	2	11.1%	10	55.0%	53.8%	52.4%	52.5%	1344	—
4	Fire Crux Lorraine	2	11.1%	14	57.1%	56.5%	51.0%	51.7%	1341	—
5	Wind Arcane	2	11.1%	12	54.2%	55.9%	49.0%	50.3%	1354	—
6	Horse and Taxes	2	11.1%	11	45.5%	53.9%	48.1%	51.3%	1356	—
7	Fire Suzaku	1	5.6%	5	50.0%	53.6%	47.1%	49.0%	1240	↓ low
8	Wind Umbra Ciel	1	5.6%	6	33.3%	47.6%	45.7%	48.6%	1068	↓ low
9	Fire Oblation	1	5.6%	5	40.0%	43.0%	45.0%	45.5%	1353	—
10	Fire Umbra Alice	1	5.6%	5	40.0%	43.0%	45.0%	45.5%	1353	—
11	Fire Umbra Ranger	1	5.6%	6	16.7%	39.5%	44.4%	47.9%	1222	↓ low
12	Fire Umbra Guardian	1	5.6%	4	25.0%	39.0%	42.9%	44.3%	1211	↓ low
13	Wind Shadowstrike	1	5.6%	4	12.5%	32.0%	41.7%	42.3%	1168	↓ low
14	Fire Polkhawk	1	5.6%	3	0.0%	41.7%	40.0%	46.9%	996	↓ low