Fire ExiaTier 2
at Msgitek Store Champ
decks
1
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.4%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1173
· median 1173
· range 1173–1173
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1097
Q1 1269
Q3 1507
1678
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
