Water AlliesTier 2
at Msgitek Store Champ
decks
1
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-3-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
29.8%
avg ELO -15.1 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1280
· median 1280
· range 1280–1280
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1097
Q1 1269
Q3 1507
1678
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
