Fire SuitedTier 1
at PTM Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 17.4% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 63.6% | +10.2 |
| Water Fractal | 13.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.2 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -3.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +3.7 |
| Water Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +11.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Five of Spades | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rouge, Ace of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Suited Trickery | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Two of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verita, Queen of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Noire, Ace of Spades | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heatwave Generator | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Two of Spades | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trump Set | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Spades | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |