Water Astra RangerTier 1
at PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.6%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
52.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1268
· median 1268
· range 1268–1268
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1126
Q1 1263
Q3 1426
1607
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 17.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Water Fractal | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Water Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Astra Ranger decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
