Water AetherwingTier 1
at PTM Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 17.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.3 |
| Water Fractal | 13.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Fire Suited | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.3% | -10.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.0% | -5.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.1% | +14.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 9 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 9 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranger Boots | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Aether | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |