← 0111 Phantom Monarchs Store Championships
Fire Dawn of AshesTier 2
at 0111 Phantom Monarchs Store Championships
decks
1
(3.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-3-1
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
29.6%
avg ELO -11.8 per match
expected value
46.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1389
· median 1389
· range 1389–1389
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1067
Q1 1170
Q3 1368
1694
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 24.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -4.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Slimes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.0% | -24.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Dawn of Ashes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
