← 0111 Phantom Monarchs Store Championships
Water FractalTier 1
at 0111 Phantom Monarchs Store Championships
decks
2
(6.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-3-2
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.4%
avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
53.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1351
· median 1351
· range 1133–1568
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1067
Q1 1170
Q3 1368
1694
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 24.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 38.7% | -8.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.0% | +3.7 |
| Arcane | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.7% | +1.7 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Fire Suited | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
