← 0111 Phantom Monarchs Store Championships

Water FractalTier 1

at 0111 Phantom Monarchs Store Championships

decks
2 (6.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12 7-3-2
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.4% avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
53.0% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.2% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1351 · median 1351 · range 1133–1568 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1067 Q1 1170 Q3 1368 1694
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 50% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Shadowstrike 24.1% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 38.7% -8.5
Wind Seiryuu 13.8% 0
Water Aetherwing 6.9% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 55.0% +3.7
Arcane 3.4% 0
Fire Aetherwing 3.4% 0
Fire Arcane 3.4% 0
Fire Crux Lorraine 3.4% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 51.7% +1.7
Fire Dawn of Ashes 3.4% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 3.4% 0
Fire Neos 3.4% 0
Fire Oblation 3.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.0% +11.2
Fire Suited 3.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.5% -8.8
Fire Suzaku 3.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.7% +4.4
Fire Umbra Ranger 3.4% 0
Slimes 3.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.1% +16.2
Wind Astra Cleric 3.4% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 3.4% 0
Wind Slice & Dice 3.4% 0
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

JSON: /api/events/42904/archetypes/Water Fractal