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Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Storm Gate PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
0-5-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.5%
avg ELO -9.5 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1216
· median 1216
· range 1154–1278
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1147
Q1 1288
Q3 1428
1571
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.1 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Slimes | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
