← Storm Gate PTM Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at Storm Gate PTM Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.1 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.8 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.1% | +22.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |