← Xepher Arcade Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Xepher Arcade Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 75.0% | 45.9% | 54.7% | 46.5% | 1560 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 62.5% | 60.5% | 53.3% | 54.8% | 1280 | — |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 20.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 56.5% | 53.3% | 51.5% | 1291 | — |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 20.0% | 8 | 50.0% | 58.7% | 50.5% | 53.7% | 1215 | — |
| 5 | Wind Allies | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 48.9% | 50.0% | 49.6% | 1221 | — |
| 6 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 37.5% | 43.6% | 46.0% | 46.2% | 1187 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 40.8% | 44.0% | 45.4% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 39.1% | 43.3% | 43.9% | 1176 | ↓ low |