← Grand Archive Store Championship- PTM
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive Store Championship- PTM.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
2nd
Fire Umbra Ciel
56.7%
↑ top
1st
Wind Astra Cleric
57.5%
↑ top
3rd
Fire Luxem Assassin
55.8%
↑ top
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 80.0% | 69.4% | 57.5% | 58.8% | 1384 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 80.0% | 54.6% | 56.7% | 51.7% | 1563 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 3 | 13.6% | 13 | 73.1% | 60.9% | 55.8% | 54.1% | 1419 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 70.0% | 53.2% | 55.7% | 52.3% | 1452 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 80.0% | 52.4% | 55.0% | 50.2% | 1689 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 46.3% | 54.3% | 50.6% | 1404 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Suited | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 70.0% | 63.4% | 53.8% | 55.0% | 1245 | — |
| 8 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 4.5% | 4 | 50.0% | 55.3% | 52.0% | 53.4% | 1284 | — |
| 9 | Water Fractal | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 52.7% | 47.5% | 50.3% | 1232 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 4.5% | 4 | 25.0% | 41.4% | 45.7% | 46.8% | 1248 | — |
| 11 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 51.0% | 45.7% | 49.2% | 1262 | — |
| 12 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 9.1% | 7 | 35.7% | 34.0% | 45.6% | 42.9% | 1379 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Fire Umbra Diana | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.2% | 45.3% | 46.7% | 1046 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Razorgale | 2 | 9.1% | 9 | 33.3% | 45.5% | 45.2% | 48.1% | 1102 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 45.8% | 45.0% | 46.2% | 1268 | — |
| 16 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 20.0% | 47.5% | 44.0% | 49.1% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Chess | 1 | 4.5% | 4 | 0.0% | 31.5% | 40.0% | 43.3% | 1063 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Water Tera Cleric | 1 | 4.5% | 2 | 0.0% | 37.3% | 40.0% | 44.9% | 1195 | ↓ low |