← Grand Archive Store Championship- PTM

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive Store Championship- PTM. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Astra Cleric 1 4.5% 5 80.0% 69.4% 57.5% 58.8% 1384 ↑ top
2 Fire Umbra Ciel 1 4.5% 5 80.0% 54.6% 56.7% 51.7% 1563 ↑ top
3 Fire Luxem Assassin 3 13.6% 13 73.1% 60.9% 55.8% 54.1% 1419 ↑ top
4 Fire Oblation 1 4.5% 5 70.0% 53.2% 55.7% 52.3% 1452 ↑ top
5 Water Aetherwing 1 4.5% 5 80.0% 52.4% 55.0% 50.2% 1689 ↑ top
6 Horse and Taxes 1 4.5% 5 60.0% 46.3% 54.3% 50.6% 1404 ↑ top
7 Fire Suited 1 4.5% 5 70.0% 63.4% 53.8% 55.0% 1245
8 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 4.5% 4 50.0% 55.3% 52.0% 53.4% 1284
9 Water Fractal 1 4.5% 5 40.0% 52.7% 47.5% 50.3% 1232 ↓ low
10 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 4.5% 4 25.0% 41.4% 45.7% 46.8% 1248
11 Fire Aggro 1 4.5% 5 40.0% 51.0% 45.7% 49.2% 1262
12 Wind Shadowstrike 2 9.1% 7 35.7% 34.0% 45.6% 42.9% 1379 ↑ top
13 Fire Umbra Diana 1 4.5% 5 40.0% 47.2% 45.3% 46.7% 1046 ↓ low
14 Wind Razorgale 2 9.1% 9 33.3% 45.5% 45.2% 48.1% 1102 ↓ low
15 Wind Seiryuu 1 4.5% 5 40.0% 45.8% 45.0% 46.2% 1268
16 Fire Crux Mage 1 4.5% 5 20.0% 47.5% 44.0% 49.1% 1192 ↓ low
17 Water Chess 1 4.5% 4 0.0% 31.5% 40.0% 43.3% 1063 ↓ low
18 Water Tera Cleric 1 4.5% 2 0.0% 37.3% 40.0% 44.9% 1195 ↓ low